تحلیل حساسیت تبخیر و تعرق مرجع در اقلیم مرطوب حاشیه جنوبی دریای خزر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 هیئت علمی دانشکده کویر شناسی دانشگاه سمنان

2 دانشجوی دکتری بیابانزدایی، گروه بیابان، دانشکده کویرشناسی، دانشگاه سمنان

3 دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

تغییر در متغیرهای اقلیمی مؤثر بر دسترسی به منابع آب می­تواند نقش کلیدی در توسعه پایدار کشاورزی و محیط­زیست داشته باشد. ET0 پس از بارش مهمترین متغیر اثرگذار بر دسترسی به منابع آب است. بنابراین مطالعه حاضر به بررسی تغییرات زمانی و مکانی ET0، تحلیل روند، تحلیل حساسیت و تحلیل سهم نسبی متغیرهای اقلیمی شامل ساعات آفتابی (SD)، رطوبت نسبی (RH)، سرعت باد (WS)، فشار هوا (P)، دمای حداکثر (Tmax) و حداقل (Tmin) برای یک دوره 30 ساله (2017 - 1988) در 7 ایستگاه سینوپتیک حاشیه جنوبی دریای خزر در مقیاس­های زمانی مختلف می­پردازد. توزیع مکانی ET0 در حوزه دریای خزر نشان داد که ET0 از غرب به شرق افزایش می یابد. روند تغییرات زمانی ET0 نشان داد که در مقیاس زمانی سالانه و ماهانه شامل ماه­های مارس، می، ژوئن، جولای، آگوست و سپتامبر تمام ایستگاه­ها در سطح معنی­داری 5 درصد دارای روند صعودی بودند. در حالیکه نتایج تحلیل حساسیت نشان داد که ET0 بیشترین حساسیت را به متغیرهای RH ، Tmax و WS دارد، اما نتایج تحلیل نرخ سهم نسبی متغیرهای اقلیمی نشان داد که متغیرهای RH، WS و Tmin بترتیب کنشگران اصلی ET0 در کرانه جنوبی دریای خزر در طول 30 سال گذشته هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity analysis of reference evapotranspiration in humid climate of the southern shore of Caspian Sea

نویسندگان [English]

  • aliasghar zolfaghari 1
  • Muhammad Nasrollahi 2
  • Mohammad Reza Yazdani 3
1
2 Ph. D. Student of Desertification, Faculty of desert studies, Semnan University
3 Semnan University
چکیده [English]

Changes in climatic variables that affecting access to water can play a key role in the sustainable development of agriculture and the environment. Since ET0 is the most important variable affecting access to water resources after rainfall. Therefore, the present study examines temporal and spatial variations of ET0, temporal analysis of trend, sensitivity and relative contribution rate of climatic variables including Sun Duration (SD), Relative Humidity (RH), Wind Speed (WS), air pressure (P), maximum Temperature (Tmax) and minimum Temperature (Tmin) for a period of 30 years (1988-2017) at 7 synoptic stations on the southern shore of the Caspian Sea at different time scales. The spatial distribution of ET0 in the Caspian Sea basin showed that ET0 increases from west to east. The results showed that on the annual and monthly time scale including March, May, June, July, August and September, all stations had upward trend at 5% probability level of Significance. While the results of sensitivity analysis showed that ET0 has the highest sensitivity to variables of RH, Tmax and WS respectively, but results of relative contribution rate showed that variables of RH, WS and Tmin are the main actors on ET0, in the southern shore of the Caspian Sea during the last 30 years, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sensitivity analysis
  • relative contribution rate
  • humid climate
  • reference evapotranspiration
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